Paymentology’s predictions for 2025

Payment technology and innovation are accelerating across the fintech industry, with more companies recognising the importance of adapting to changing customer needs, with non-cash transactions projected to hit 2.3 trillion transactions by 2027.

Undoubtedly, fintech and payments will continue to serve as pivotal forces shaping the financial landscape, but what trends will define the market next year? A team of Paymentology’s payment experts explore what we can expect to see in the payments industry next year.

Jeff Parker, CEO, says, “Digital payments will continue to grow rapidly, with mobile wallets expected to reach 4.8 billion users by 2025, nearly 60% of the global population. Key trends will include the acceleration of cross-border, real-time and instant payments and the rise of cashless economies. As digitisation and technological advancements propel digital payment solutions to become faster, cheaper, and more accessible, opportunities for global commerce—especially cross-border e-commerce will expand. The growing adoption of mobile and internet technology and rising consumer expectations for instant payment experiences will drive financial inclusion forward. In my view, organizations that prioritize the end-user experience will be the ones that lift the benchmark on what is possible and will continue to drive growth. As fintechs and traditional payment providers collaborate more and new players enter the market, innovation and competition will thrive. This will help create digital payment ecosystems that can reach the 1.4 billion unbanked individuals globally, enabling participation in the formal economy and accelerating the transition to cashless societies.”

Anna Porra, chief revenue officer, emphasises, “Profitability is a key priority for digital banks and payments providers. As competition pressures increase, these players will focus on attracting new customers, offering targeted and differentiated solutions to drive revenue growth while reducing their cost base. Inspired by some great examples, such as Wio in the Middles East, which became profitable in their first year. The focus will be on narrow, well-defined solutions that deliver real impact, ensuring faster paths to profitability and scale.”

Andy Watson, chief people and transformation officer, notes, “2025 will likely be the year of AI agents. Anthropic launched its AI agent ‘Computer Use’ in October 2024, and OpenAI’s new AI agent, codenamed ‘Operator,’ is set to launch early next year. It is reported it will be able to control computers on behalf of a user and complete complex tasks, such as booking travel arrangements or writing code. These developments signify a major shift in how we interact with technology. Once fully-fledged agents can orchestrate strings of actions in response to commands or requests, we will witness significant changes in the workplace. This shift will move our people from task executors to supervisors and strategists, focusing on adaptability, critical thinking, and effective collaboration with AI. Integrating these agents could accelerate decision-making, reduce errors, and shorten project timelines. Still, it will disrupt current job structures and necessitate continuous upskilling to maintain effective human-AI collaboration. The emergence of AI agents will mark the beginning of a new era in the digital workplace, where harnessing these innovations and preparing ourselves to partner with digital assistants will be crucial. We will face new questions like adapting and succeeding with our new digital colleagues and friends.”

Stephen Bowe, chief product officer, highlights, “As the adoption of digital payments worldwide continues to grow, fraud will remain a major challenge, and therefore, the next for better protective measures increases. While the processing of refunds and chargebacks has improved, these activities remain confusing and cumbersome and continue to frustrate customers. Prevention will become the focus, with tokenization playing a key role. By removing sensitive data from transactions, tokens help make fraudsters’ efforts futile. With advanced fraud management systems using AI and machine learning, issuers will proactively stop fraud before it happens, boosting consumer trust and confidence. This shift will be vital for the continued growth of digital payments and a more secure, seamless user experience.”

Tim Joslyn, chief technology officer, states, “Quantum computing is no longer a distant future—it’s advancing rapidly, with researchers from Shanghai University demonstrating breakthroughs in cracking encryption algorithms. For payments companies, this signals the urgent need to prepare for ‘Q-Day’—when quantum computers could render current cryptographic protections obsolete. 2025 is the time to reassess security frameworks, invest in quantum-resistant algorithms, and future-proof payments systems. By acting now, we can stay ahead of these technological leaps and ensure secure transactions in a quantum-powered world. This is not just a challenge; it’s an opportunity to lead the way in redefining trust and security for the next era of payments innovation.”

Merusha Naidu, global head of partnerships, says, “Global cashless payment volumes are projected to increase by more than 80% between 2020 and 2025, from about 1 trillion transactions to almost 1.9 trillion, and to almost triple by 2030. Real-time payments (RTP) could reach $193.1 billion within the multi-rail payments ecosystem by 2030. Multi-rail payments have already revolutionised the industry by allowing businesses to leverage various payment methods simultaneously without the technical or security challenges of integrating separate systems. By combining traditional credit cards, digital wallets, BNPL (Buy Now Pay Later) services, and real-time payments, businesses can offer customers a seamless, personalised experience. This flexibility will drive growth, enabling companies to expand their customer base, access new markets, and cater to the diverse preferences of global customers. As multi-rail systems become a standard component of payment strategies, bringing in real-time payments, BNPL, and P2P payments will give customers the flexibility and functionality to enable and unlock greater opportunities in the increasingly cashless economy, paving the way for a truly interconnected global payments ecosystem.”

Matt Bruton, global head of advisory services, foresees, “In 2025, we will see the continuation of consumer payments shifting to an ecosystem where traditional plastic cards take a back seat. Payments will be seamless and invisible, with biometrics on devices as the main form of secure customer authentication (SCA). Tokens securely stored across merchants, devices, and banks will enable frictionless, near-instant transactions, setting a new standard for customer-merchant payment experiences. This evolution will make payments virtually effortless and boost both security and convenience for consumers.”

Drisha Kirkman, global head of programme management and sustainability, outlines, “At Paymentology, our card programme management services allow our customers to issue end-to-end card programmes. This card includes sponsorship, issuance, and support in a box. A shift to digital issuance programme management solutions will revolutionise how customers engage with financial services in Africa. Technological advancement and regulatory pushes towards cashless economies are driving this. This transformation will enable low-cost access to financial systems, empowering underserved communities and fostering inclusion. Reserve banks mandating reduced cash use will enhance security and economic participation. Paymentology will play a vital role in this shift, advancing sustainable, inclusive products that bridge the gaps left by traditional banking. By focusing on scalable, low-cost solutions, Paymentology will help drive financial empowerment and socio-economic benefits, showcasing the potential of responsible digital innovation.”

Martin Heraghty, regional director, Europe, explains, “In 2025, digital-only spinoffs will continue to reshape the banking sector. Financial institutions, including traditional banks, will leverage these digital-only brands to expand their reach far beyond geographic limitations, all while keeping operational costs low. With no need for physical retail spaces and fewer staff, these digital-first models enable banks to target niche markets and specific demographic groups more effectively, offering tailored products and services that traditional branches can’t match. These digital ventures will also accelerate time-to-value for important business opportunities, allowing financial institutions to capitalise on emerging trends quickly. While often driven by the need to defend against competitors, these digital spinoffs also serve as offensive strategies, allowing banks to experiment with modern technologies in a more controlled, ‘safer’ environment. This will help them stay competitive and create new businesses that could be spun off in the future, adding another layer of growth and flexibility to the digital banking landscape.”

Kirsten Wortmann, regional director, Africa, points out, “Digital wallets will continue to play a pivotal role in bridging the financial inclusion gap across Africa. As contactless mobile payment systems gain widespread adoption, they gradually replace traditional cards, offering a more accessible and portable alternative. Digital wallets, such as M-PESA, are just one great example of a digital wallet changing the way payments are made, particularly for the unbanked population. With millions of people relying on mobile phones but lacking access to traditional banking services, digital wallets provide crucial financial services—offering everything from secure transactions to mobile banking options. These innovations are not only simplifying payments but are also expanding financial access, contributing to broader economic growth and empowering communities across the continent.”

Alejandro Del Rio, regional director, Latam, remarks, “By 2025, the remittance market in Latin America is expected to experience sustained growth, as has been anticipated in recent months, driven by the expansion of cross-border transfer services and the adoption of new technologies. This shift is accompanied by an increasingly competitive payments ecosystem, where fintechs, superapps, and new alternatives like stablecoins offer faster, more accessible, and cost-effective solutions than traditional options. Consumer demand accelerates this process by seeking more agile, transparent, and secure transactions. In this context, new technological solutions are key to improving the user experience and making international payments more accessible in a business context. Additionally, the focus on security through fraud prevention using artificial intelligence strengthens trust in the system. For companies like ours, this transformation represents a growth opportunity and a responsibility to continue innovating and adapting to consumer needs, ensuring that remittances continue to play a fundamental role in the region’s economic development.”

Nauman Hassan, regional director, MENA, observes, “By 2025, AI is set to revolutionise the banking landscape across the Middle East, becoming a cornerstone of innovation and transformation. Banks will leverage AI to deliver hyper-personalised, seamless experiences, precisely anticipating customer needs and redefining engagement. Real-time fraud detection systems will enhance trust and security by identifying and mitigating risks instantly. At the same time, generative AI and predictive analytics will empower institutions to forecast customer behaviours, optimise offerings, and shape market trends. AI-powered regulatory compliance tools will streamline adherence to complex regional mandates, boosting efficiency and accuracy. Driven by a young, tech-savvy population, digital-only banks will flourish, offering mobile-first, AI-enhanced platforms to meet evolving demands. Additionally, open finance initiatives, led by regional pioneers, will foster collaboration between banks, fintechs, and regulators, creating an integrated and inclusive financial ecosystem. However, the success of this transformation will hinge on robust AI governance, ethical frameworks, and a commitment to transparency, ensuring that trust and fairness remain at the forefront of this digital evolution.”